Ask not how you can avoid recession, ask what you can do for the rest of the country to emerge from recession that they are still suffering from.
Look at that GDP "Growth Rate" and of course you can clearly see as a derivative it's a "Shrink Rate of Growth Rate" and the trend line itself is more meaningful than you would think, especially the greater number of decades you have experienced to correlate with the patterns.
The right-hand y-intercept is fixed by the present day, but the left hand y-intercept would vary related to what year in the past you choose to begin your data series.
Good choice anyway IMHO to use ~1950 on the left since so many in the USA who have economic experiences before that time are no longer with us, or seriously retired from productive service even though passive incomes for some survivors of earlier times are doing quite well for now.
Remember that this is corporate growth, and so many corporations depend so much on growth that anything which stands in the way will be disposed of, if a situation of zero real economic opportunity becomes significant, then growth (or reduced shrinkage as a last resort) will be extracted from the citizens either by passing on the costs directly or through government lobbying.
So look at area under the curve or in this case area over the curve which I believe are two different things.
Sharp or extended spikes below the trend are devastating to both corporations & citizens, but corporate shareholders are compensated by the eventual return of growth above the trend, since costs are passed on, the consumers do not share in the prosperity like they share in the devastation.
Anyway, experience has shown that a negative spike like the one in about 1981 will devastate maybe 10% of consumers at least, and for them there will be no recovery for about 25 years at least.
Later on in the early '80's a different larger portion of consumers are neutralized. The 1990-91 ruin is still largely with "us" if you were one of the unfortunate ~10% there, otherwise you may not even notice, this is by
design.
Early 2000's there is a little downward noise, lots of dotcoms and their dependents, but 2008-09 were the worst thing since the Nixon Recession, a huge new group whose futures's ruined for decades to come.
Since each significant spike destroys a different block of consumers, this is adding up, estimate totalling up to almost a majority of consumers who are not just compromised but ruined by now.
And that's not all, Nixon was so incompetent that the currency had to be sacrificed too and that does not appear on the chart. This was huge.
Surprises are in store if you have not yet felt the wrath from 5 years ago.
There is nothing more for currency to contribute, loss of property values since then has not extracted its toll proportional to negative area so something else will have to give, and it will have to be big.
Look at that GDP "Growth Rate" and of course you can clearly see as a derivative it's a "Shrink Rate of Growth Rate" and the trend line itself is more meaningful than you would think, especially the greater number of decades you have experienced to correlate with the patterns.
The right-hand y-intercept is fixed by the present day, but the left hand y-intercept would vary related to what year in the past you choose to begin your data series. Good choice anyway IMHO to use ~1950 on the left since so many in the USA who have economic experiences before that time are no longer with us, or seriously retired from productive service even though passive incomes for some survivors of earlier times are doing quite well for now.
Remember that this is corporate growth, and so many corporations depend so much on growth that anything which stands in the way will be disposed of, if a situation of zero real economic opportunity becomes significant, then growth (or reduced shrinkage as a last resort) will be extracted from the citizens either by passing on the costs directly or through government lobbying.
So look at area under the curve or in this case area over the curve which I believe are two different things.
Sharp or extended spikes below the trend are devastating to both corporations & citizens, but corporate shareholders are compensated by the eventual return of growth above the trend, since costs are passed on, the consumers do not share in the prosperity like they share in the devastation.
Anyway, experience has shown that a negative spike like the one in about 1981 will devastate maybe 10% of consumers at least, and for them there will be no recovery for about 25 years at least. Later on in the early '80's a different larger portion of consumers are neutralized. The 1990-91 ruin is still largely with "us" if you were one of the unfortunate ~10% there, otherwise you may not even notice, this is by design. Early 2000's there is a little downward noise, lots of dotcoms and their dependents, but 2008-09 were the worst thing since the Nixon Recession, a huge new group whose futures's ruined for decades to come.
Since each significant spike destroys a different block of consumers, this is adding up, estimate totalling up to almost a majority of consumers who are not just compromised but ruined by now.
And that's not all, Nixon was so incompetent that the currency had to be sacrificed too and that does not appear on the chart. This was huge.
Surprises are in store if you have not yet felt the wrath from 5 years ago. There is nothing more for currency to contribute, loss of property values since then has not extracted its toll proportional to negative area so something else will have to give, and it will have to be big.