> Facebook chat in two years: put on a headset and get teleported to a room in a virtual world where you can talk to your friends' avatars. Skype and Google+ Hangouts suddenly seem very 20th century.
This doesn't happen in two years at all -- it's hard to keep track, but Google Glass has been in its public beta release for over a year and yet there are no people walking around using them, at least where I'm from.
Plus I think most of us are still using the keyboard (be it virtual or physical) to tap instant messages and email -- if VR would be so mature in two years that we'd be able to do a lot of things through a virtual world, why haven't we ditched keyboards straight away?
There is likely a user input revolution around the corner, but I'd be looking at the 2024 date or later. This is probably a good reason why to be concerned about the purchase -- Facebook seems unlikely to care about Oculus games beyond what Oculus promised in their Kickstarter.
I totally agree that wearable computers like Google Glass aren't ready to replace conventional mobile devices. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that the webcam+screen model of video chat (not the keyboard+mouse model of computing) in the near future will be replaced by something like webcam+Rift+Omni. I think the technology will likely be mature enough within the next few years and that the public is already ready to adopt it.
Before the 1964 World's Fair, the notion of video chat to accompany the telephone was considered science fiction. Even after the technology was demonstrated to the public, it stayed in the realm of science fiction, as seen in the film 2001, until the 21st century. I really think that being able to interact with other people in a digital world a la the Matrix would sell millions of units instantly.
This doesn't happen in two years at all -- it's hard to keep track, but Google Glass has been in its public beta release for over a year and yet there are no people walking around using them, at least where I'm from.
Plus I think most of us are still using the keyboard (be it virtual or physical) to tap instant messages and email -- if VR would be so mature in two years that we'd be able to do a lot of things through a virtual world, why haven't we ditched keyboards straight away?
There is likely a user input revolution around the corner, but I'd be looking at the 2024 date or later. This is probably a good reason why to be concerned about the purchase -- Facebook seems unlikely to care about Oculus games beyond what Oculus promised in their Kickstarter.