In all but a few situations (for example learning something completely new) being modest is simply a waste of time. I have come to believe that the effects of "overconfidence" are almost overwhelmingly positive. If I look at almost anyone I admire, I see that they have, and have probably had for a long time, a very high sense of their own worth. (For example, look at Paul Graham. Did it take audacity to say he was working on a "100 year language"?)
The reason why this took a long time for me to learn, is that being confident triggers an instinct in people to knock that person down and challenge them. See, for example, these comments. Nietzsche described this very well. It makes sense because there can only be a few leaders.
Personally, I'm trying to get back a sort of youthful impudence I used to have. It's a personality trait that is awakened when reading about how Wolfram, when he was a university student, in a debate, pointed to a stack of CS books including TAoCP and the Dragon book and said something like "I'm going to read these and then soon I will know all that you know". It's arrogant beyond belief but it also makes me think "fuck yeah". I think that part of me is far more valuable than the part that just wants to behave, be nice, and get upmodded in places like this for going along with a crowd and making sure that everything is said in veneered careful way that will be approved by elders in suits.
'It's arrogant beyond belief but it also makes me think "fuck yeah".'
Well put. I agree that the version of the story in which Wolfram quietly notices that he doesn't know facts, retreats to his room, and tries to learn something doesn't make me want to tear off my shirt and pound my chest NEARLY as much as the version in which he tells everyone he's better than they are before going to his room and trying to learn something.
The part of me that you mock, who wants to pound my chest and watch the Ultimate Fighting Championship and write abrasive comments on internet forums, I now realize is a gentle creature who needs nurture, and the direct source of much that I value.
I know that, but the question is if it can help? I don't think Wolfram is as significant as he thinks he is, but I think he's a lot more significant than a version without the obnoxious ego would be.
(1) You don't understand the distinction between having a big ego and being annoying. In this case I don't know what to say, except: thinking you're great doesn't necessitate telling everyone you're great.
(2) You do get the distinction, and you're really arguing that, big ego or small, immodesty is desirable. Again, there's not a lot to say here: it seems possible that Wolfram's success has a lot more to do with creating Mathematica than with telling people he's smarter than they are. If your position is really that being obnoxious (as opposed to merely having self-confidence) is useful, and that we should therefore be obnoxious, then so be it.
I totally disagree. Saying you are working on a 100 year language, ie being openly ambitiousis not the same thing as saying "I'm one of the most important scientists today. I'm really one of a kind." it seems silly to equate the two. And I don't think great scientists typically do that. They usually talk of standing on the shoulders of giants or being humble programmers.
The "standing on the shoulders of giants" quote is a bad example. It was a jibe at Hooke. From Michael White's biography of Newton:
"In the last sentence Newton revealed the truly spiteful, uncompromising and razor-sharp viciousness of his character, for Hooke [...] was so stooped and physically deformed that he had the appearance of a dwarf"
Where did I say that? Out of what dime novel did you learn about logic? Great scientists usually do talk of standing on the shoulders of giant and exhibit humility. Simply because I used a phrase that has been attributed to Newton does not mean that I am referring to or only to Newton or that I am naive about him.
If you want to debate me that all great scientists really do go around saying "Look at me I'm so great; I'm the most important working scientist of the age" then I would love to have that discussion. However, I doubt that is the case as you are simply presumptuous and want to make snide little comments because you some little factoid about Newton that, by the way, most readers of HN probably know this too. "Hah, you aren't special."
> If you want to debate me that all great scientists really do go around saying "Look at me I'm so great; I'm the most important working scientist of the age"
I really think most of the really great scientists have consistently _thought_ that to some degree. Some of them have been better or worse at internalizing, and had different degrees of political sensibility.
i think a lot of the discussion regarding this topic has focused too closely on famous scientists/innovators and whether they were insufferably arrogant or not. certainly we can all agree that many famous scientists were arrogant, and i believe your claim that many of the people you admire are arrogant. but these are the very rare people who are exceptionally talented and--i admit this with a sigh--deserve to be arrogant. it might be a little harder for me or others to get along with them, but that's who they are and if it helps them do good work, then so be it.
we seem to forget that the vast majority of arrogant people overestimate their abilities, are no better than their peers, and are mocked behind their backs or on the internet. One might term these the "fuck yeah" arrogants. Perhaps their arrogance is helping their work slightly, but I think instead its primary effect is to limit their capacity to learn.
Maybe overconfidence gives you a slightly higher likelihood of success. But I couldn't live with myself acting like that, and I wouldn't want the success that would come with it. I will settle for perhaps a slightly lower chance of success, but I'll feel better about it knowing I am being myself and treating others well.
> It makes sense because there can only be a few leaders.
Leaders are followed because they inspire, not because they're arrogant beyond believe. People that act like leaders but aren't are knocked down. The real leaders aren't.
I have come to believe that the effects of "overconfidence" are almost overwhelmingly positive. [..] I think that part of me is far more valuable than the part that just wants to behave, be nice, and get upmodded in places like this for going along with a crowd...
This is what you have been bred and socialized to think, as a male. (Yes, it does compete with some other, more modern forms of socialization.) Everyone who tries to knock you down is either building their own confidence or testing yours, or both. You are supposed to learn to use this to drive yourself more. Overconfident males who take risks are good for the social group and very good for the few males who become wildly successful, but not so great for the rest. But screw that, I'm a male, I know I'm smart, and I'm going to be one of the successful ones, dammit! Failure is not an option!
I'm a male, and I think I can accomplish anything I choose to do. That makes me ridiculously overconfident, which is probably necessary for accomplishing something new and important. I know about the odds, but I'm just not wired to care about them very much. My problem is that the prospect of great success doesn't really motivate me. This is not what males of the species are supposed to think, as much as evolved creatures are "supposed" to think anything at all. Some wires have gotten crossed somewhere. I am a mutant, and not the cool kind, like an X-Man.
Part of me already realizes that this defect will prevent me from fulfilling my role as a male, and reduces my chance of accomplishing something great from slim to almost nothing. I am a dud in the evolutionary scheme of things, not just a long shot, but a crippled long shot. The other part of me, the part that still works "properly," if there is a proper way for an evolved mechanism to work, believes that this is a problem that can be overcome. I can accomplish anything I want, after all.
The red light blinks, and the diagnostic routines whirr busily. The doll sits and waits patiently, confident that it will be able to carry out its programming. The confidence has been built into the doll, and it is almost as if the machine can sense the power of the deterministic forces that drive it. As if, in the stories its highly evolved brain carefully assembles from its memory banks, it could see the outlines of its future, astride the summit. As if its missing leg, and the tens of thousands of other machines streaming past it, some of them already halfway up the mountain, were insignificant trifles.
The machine sits with serene confidence because it knows something that the other machines do not. It knows that it is different. It knows that it can succeed where others have failed. It knows that when the diagnostic routines have finished and the problem has been resolved, it will be able to surpass all the machines that have moved ahead. It knows that it is overconfident, but it also knows that overconfidence is part of why it will succeed. It knows that it is following a story its brain has been programmed to tell, but it also knows that it is a story following machine, and that the story is also a necessary part of its eventual success. These things it knows.
The reason why this took a long time for me to learn, is that being confident triggers an instinct in people to knock that person down and challenge them. See, for example, these comments. Nietzsche described this very well. It makes sense because there can only be a few leaders.
Personally, I'm trying to get back a sort of youthful impudence I used to have. It's a personality trait that is awakened when reading about how Wolfram, when he was a university student, in a debate, pointed to a stack of CS books including TAoCP and the Dragon book and said something like "I'm going to read these and then soon I will know all that you know". It's arrogant beyond belief but it also makes me think "fuck yeah". I think that part of me is far more valuable than the part that just wants to behave, be nice, and get upmodded in places like this for going along with a crowd and making sure that everything is said in veneered careful way that will be approved by elders in suits.