I installed Ubuntu on a laptop I gave to my father a few weeks ago, and he's been using it exclusively. I don't think he can tell the difference between Ubuntu and Windows.
You know, I'm not one of those weirdos that think desktop applications are going away. But I'd say most people who keep up with software development believe that's the case. <rant>I think that would be pretty bad if the best we'll ever be able to do is Javascript.</rant> Anyway, IF most apps people are using are Web based and compatible with Firefox or a Flash version supported in Ubuntu ... it seems less and less like there would be much point in paying for, using, and dealing with Windows.
I think most seniors can just about already switch fine to Ubuntu.