> because it was the only way I could eke out something remotely relevant to the article from your original comment.
Remotely relevant? It's not like I'm talking about cats, I'm talking about prediction markets, which is the topic of the article. You would have to be extremely uncharitable to not see a holistic discussion about other problems prediction markets face and possible solutions to those problems as relevant. These topics very seldom come up on HN so a mere mention of prediction markets can and should be a very good excuse to have many side threads on the topic that have been waiting to happen.
Hmm, okay, I can see that. I guess I wasn't paying much attention to the frequency of prediction markets articles on here. From that perspective, I see where you're coming from. I was miffed by the "here" in your "I really wonder whether privacy would actually be the answer here", because I assumed it meant the story under discussion, but I suppose it's a fine comment if we think of this page as a general discussion of the industry.
As to your exact proposal, I do have some criticism (less hostile this time). I don't think it would be easy to get people to do trades when they can't see the price. It's not enough to just ask everybody for limit orders, and then only pair off the ones that cross, because you're asking people to tie up capital on a trade they don't even know the price of.
Basically, somebody does a trade on a prediction market not because he believes he knows the probability, but because he believe he knows it better than the market.
Is there a way in your proposal to get around this limitation?
Remotely relevant? It's not like I'm talking about cats, I'm talking about prediction markets, which is the topic of the article. You would have to be extremely uncharitable to not see a holistic discussion about other problems prediction markets face and possible solutions to those problems as relevant. These topics very seldom come up on HN so a mere mention of prediction markets can and should be a very good excuse to have many side threads on the topic that have been waiting to happen.