> I am constantly surprised how prevalent this attitude is. ChatGPT was only just released in 2022. Is there some expectation that these things won't improve?
I mean, in a way, yeah.
Last 10 years were basically one hype-cycle after another filled with lofty predictions that never quite panned out. Besides the fact that many of these predictions kind of fell short, there's also the perception that progress on these various things kind of ground to a halt once the interest faded.
3D printers are interesting. Sure, they have gotten incrementally better after the hype cycle died out, but otherwise their place in society hasn't changed, nor will it likely ever change. It has its utility for prototyping and as a fun hobbyist machine for making plastic toys, but otherwise I remember people saying that we'd be able to just 3D print whatever we needed rather than relying on factories.
Same story with VR. We've made a lot of progress since the first Oculus came out, but otherwise their role in society hasn't changed much since then. The latest VR headsets are still as useless and still as bad for gaming. The metaverse will probably never happen.
With AI, I don't want to be overly dismissive, but at the same time there's a growing consensus that pre-training scaling laws are plateauing, and AI "reasoning" approaches always seemed kind of goofy to me. I wouldn't be surprised if generative AI reaches a kind of equilibrium where it incrementally improves but improves in a way where it gets continuously better at being a junior developer but never quite matures beyond that. The world's smartest beginner if you will.
Which is still pretty significant mind you, it's just that I'm not sure how much this significance will be felt. It's not like one's skillset needs to adjust that much in order to use Cursor or Claude, especially as they get better over time. Even if it made developers 50% more productive, I feel like the impact of this will be balanced-out to a degree by declining interest in programming as a career (feel like coding bootcamp hype has been dead for a while now), a lack of enough young people to replace those that are aging out, the fact that a significant number of developers are, frankly, bad at their job and gave up trying to learn new things a long time ago, etc etc.
I think it really only matters in the end if we actually manage to achieve AGI, once that happens though it'll probably be the end of work and the economy as we know it, so who cares?
I think the other thing to keep in mind is that the history of programming is filled with attempts to basically replace programmers. Prior to generative AI, I remember a lot of noise over low-code / no-code tools, but they were just the latest chapter in the evolution of low-code / no-code. Kind of surprised that even now in Anno Domini 2024 one can make a living developing small-business websites due to the limitations of the latest batch of website builders.
The funny thing about 3D printers is that they're making a bit of a comeback. The early ones managed to get the capabilities right - you can print some really impressive things on the older Creality printers, but it required fiddling, several hours of building the bloody things, cogged extruders, manual bed leveling and all sorts of technical hurdles. A very motivated techy person will persevere and solve them, and will be rewarded with a very useful machine. The other 99.99% of people won't and will either drop it the moment there's an issue or will hear from others that they require a lot of fiddling and never buy one. If things ever get more complicated than "I see it on a website and I click a few buttons" (incl maintenance) then it's too complicated to gain mass adoption... which is exactly what newer 3D printers are doing - the Bambulabs A1 Mini is £170, prints like a champ, is fairly quiet, requires next to no setup, takes up way less space than the old Enders and needs almost no maintenance. It's almost grandma-proof. Oh, and to further entice your grandma to print, it comes with all sorts of useful knick-knacks that you can start printing immediately after setup. On the hype cycle curve I think 3D printers are almost out of their slump now that we have models that have ironed out the kinks.
But for VR I think we're still closer to the bottom of the curve - Meta and Valve need something to really sell the technology. The gamble for Valve was that it'd be Half Life: Alyx, and for Meta it was portable VR but the former is too techy to set up (and Half Life is already a nerdy IP) while Meta just doesn't have anything that can convince the average person to get a headset (despite me thinking it's a good value just as a Beat Saber machine). But they're getting there - I've convinced a few friends to get a Quest 3S just to practice piano with Virtuoso and I think it's those kinds of apps I hope we see more of that will bring VR out of the slump.
And then LLMs I think their hype cycle is a lot more elevated since even regular people use them extensively now. There will probably be a crash in terms of experimentation with them but I don't see people stopping their usage and I do see them becoming a lot more useful in the long term - how and when is difficult to predict at the top of the hype curve.
Like I said, 3D printers have gotten incrementally better. Buddy of mine makes high-quality prints on one that’s way cheaper than what I owned back in the day.
And yet nothing has really changed because he’s still using it to print dumb tchotchkes like every other hobbyist 10 years ago.
I can foresee them getting better but never getting good enough to where they actually fundamentally change society or live up to past promises
I mean, in a way, yeah.
Last 10 years were basically one hype-cycle after another filled with lofty predictions that never quite panned out. Besides the fact that many of these predictions kind of fell short, there's also the perception that progress on these various things kind of ground to a halt once the interest faded.
3D printers are interesting. Sure, they have gotten incrementally better after the hype cycle died out, but otherwise their place in society hasn't changed, nor will it likely ever change. It has its utility for prototyping and as a fun hobbyist machine for making plastic toys, but otherwise I remember people saying that we'd be able to just 3D print whatever we needed rather than relying on factories.
Same story with VR. We've made a lot of progress since the first Oculus came out, but otherwise their role in society hasn't changed much since then. The latest VR headsets are still as useless and still as bad for gaming. The metaverse will probably never happen.
With AI, I don't want to be overly dismissive, but at the same time there's a growing consensus that pre-training scaling laws are plateauing, and AI "reasoning" approaches always seemed kind of goofy to me. I wouldn't be surprised if generative AI reaches a kind of equilibrium where it incrementally improves but improves in a way where it gets continuously better at being a junior developer but never quite matures beyond that. The world's smartest beginner if you will.
Which is still pretty significant mind you, it's just that I'm not sure how much this significance will be felt. It's not like one's skillset needs to adjust that much in order to use Cursor or Claude, especially as they get better over time. Even if it made developers 50% more productive, I feel like the impact of this will be balanced-out to a degree by declining interest in programming as a career (feel like coding bootcamp hype has been dead for a while now), a lack of enough young people to replace those that are aging out, the fact that a significant number of developers are, frankly, bad at their job and gave up trying to learn new things a long time ago, etc etc.
I think it really only matters in the end if we actually manage to achieve AGI, once that happens though it'll probably be the end of work and the economy as we know it, so who cares?
I think the other thing to keep in mind is that the history of programming is filled with attempts to basically replace programmers. Prior to generative AI, I remember a lot of noise over low-code / no-code tools, but they were just the latest chapter in the evolution of low-code / no-code. Kind of surprised that even now in Anno Domini 2024 one can make a living developing small-business websites due to the limitations of the latest batch of website builders.