> does anyone actually think the world BTC price is being manipulated?
There are tonnes of papers showing it was in specific cases [1][2]. In the general case, we simply don’t have the data. (For example, everything connected to Tether.)
> why is an ETF on a Future on Spot Ok, but a ETF direct on spot is not?
Futures are a punt to the CFTC. Also, the failure mode of a futures-based ETF is cleaner.
A leveraged ETF based on futures will price truly to the futures even if the futures’ prices lose meaning. (The central clearinghouse for future ensures that while the price may be meaningless, there will be an agreed-upon value for price.) An ETF based on spot will need to be frozen if a handful of exchanges go under and the price of Bitcoin starts varying by 90% depending on which exchange one is looking at.
Such an event will also wreak havoc on the futures market. But the future-based ETF will continue settling against that broken market in a way the spot ETF will be unable to. That means everyone who borrowed or lent or wrote derivatives on or pledged collateral with their ETF units will be able to happily continue on their way. That’s market stability, something crypto has so far not prioritised.
There are tonnes of papers showing it was in specific cases [1][2]. In the general case, we simply don’t have the data. (For example, everything connected to Tether.)
> why is an ETF on a Future on Spot Ok, but a ETF direct on spot is not?
Futures are a punt to the CFTC. Also, the failure mode of a futures-based ETF is cleaner.
A leveraged ETF based on futures will price truly to the futures even if the futures’ prices lose meaning. (The central clearinghouse for future ensures that while the price may be meaningless, there will be an agreed-upon value for price.) An ETF based on spot will need to be frozen if a handful of exchanges go under and the price of Bitcoin starts varying by 90% depending on which exchange one is looking at.
Such an event will also wreak havoc on the futures market. But the future-based ETF will continue settling against that broken market in a way the spot ETF will be unable to. That means everyone who borrowed or lent or wrote derivatives on or pledged collateral with their ETF units will be able to happily continue on their way. That’s market stability, something crypto has so far not prioritised.
[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01941.pdf
[2] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13504851.2020.1...