Helium network is an example of a successful blockchain project/application in my opinion. They created the biggest decentralized lorawan network in the world that is used by more internet of things companies everyday. Also they are trying the same thing for creating a decentralized 5G network. It’s still early days for them because I think they started in the end of 2020 or the start of 2021, but they have grown to 490000 lorawan hotspots already. The network usage could be better, but is increasing (saw increased sensor data activity for my hotspot in 2021).
The math for Helium just does not make any sense. Looking at forum threads every gateway makes about $50 in rewards / month. That's $294,000,000 per year in rewards paid out to gateway owners.
Sending one packet costs $.00001 (100K packets for $1 according to their website). So we need to see 29,400,000,000,000 packets yearly on the Helium network for data fees to cover the gateway rewards.
Looking at data from The Things Network - who operate another LoRaWAN network - from their conference last year they mention routing 600 packets/second using 30,000 gateways => that's 630,720 packets per gateway per year.
Assuming that Helium sees the same ratio of packets, and that every packet is unique, and that every packet is meant for the Helium network (and thus paid) this yields an expected (630,720 * 490,000) 309,052,800,000 paid packets => 309,052,800,000 * 0.00001 = $3,090,528 in data fees.
So ~3 million $ in revenue (in very best case scenario) from data fees, but paying out ~294 million $ to gateway owners.
Naturally the only way this works is because they give out their own invented tokens rather than dollars. This does not make any sense, and will never make any sense. I read that the gateway manufacturers pay the Helium company 50$ per gateway (to provision a private key) which probably pays for some stuff (and to pump up their own coin), but if that's the case then it just looks like a pyramid scheme.
Also scale doesn't help if you pay out 100x more for every gateway than you can potentially earn per gateway. But that should be obvious. You're paying a gateway for 600$ and then you get >600$ in rewards per year. This does not make any sense.
Ok, I will bite :) The gateway rewards are becoming less and less every month because more gateways join the network. So in a certain way that feels like a pyramid scheme because the people that joined earlier have an advantage (they also took the most risk by backing this project in a early state). It is quite normal to reward the first movers to your platform (PayPal even gave away free money to grow their user base)
There is a twitter account that publishes the DC burn rate hourly/daily/weekly: https://twitter.com/HNT_DC_Burn. Last week they burned $1,064,348 in data fees so the revenue is way higher than the 3 million per year you described, but you make a fair point for the gateway activation fee and not sure how much of the DC burned is because of this. But focusing on growth by giving out rewards for early hotspots is not a weird tactic and the question is indeed if the pricing make sense for the long run. Nowadays most priced stocks or other assets don't make any sense to me as well, so I would have agreed with you 10 years ago, nowadays I'm not so sure. They are also expanding to the decentralized 5G market and the packets send will be way more than the LoRaWan network, so I think that is priced in the helium price as well at the moment.
Your last statement I don't really understand. If you participate in a network by investing/running the hotspot you would want a compensation and nowadays a gateway would earn less than 600 dollars a year because of the increased hotspot amount. There will be an equilibrium that the market decides otherwise people would shutdown their hotspots.
This is what Elon said about PayPal growth strategy:
ELON MUSK: Yeah. Well, we started off first by offering people $20 if they opened an account. And $20 if they referred anyone. And then we dropped it to $10. And we dropped it to $5. As the network got bigger and bigger, the value of the network itself exceeded any sort of carrot that we could offer.
Helium is trying the same thing (only decentralized) with the proof of coverage algorithm and rewards (which are diminishing by a halving process every two and a half years I think) so that the network can sustain itself. Please let me know why the cognitive dissonance is astounding because their proof of coverage hotspot rewards look a bit more advanced to the growth strategy PayPal used and they hope the network will be sustained by data transfer only when the rewards are not given anymore. (https://cdn.codetober.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/1111471...)
Sorry, can you please explain (or give some link) how it is related to blockchain? https://www.helium.com/lorawan doesn’t mention this word
In general, I was under the impression that IoT devices are underpowered for such usage.
Thank you!
Also the internet of things devices are not running the blockchain but can (energy) efficiently transfer data to the helium network. The hotspots are also quite efficient if you look at the power usage (more similar to a light bulb instead of a proof of work miner)
So the devices probably go across the WiFi networks they're on and hack into the owners' PCs (or phones?) to mine Crypto-"currency"... At least that's the one way I can see for it to make financial sense for the manufacturer.
The manufacturer earns money by selling the hotspots, so not sure what you mean tbh. I think wat you are describing is a anti virus scheme like Norton 360 and Avira are doing by install/hack into PCs with hidden PoW mining code which is unethical/horrible . Bit weird to claim this for a hotspot that hasn’t a connection to your PC and trying to slander something without investigating it properly. I get the blockchain hate (especially PoW), but unfair to accuse every project of unethical behavior if there is no proof whatsoever.
Now that's an interesting idea. I'd wanted to have "proof of decentralization" - require that nodes be physically distant from each other, to prevent mining farms. But I couldn't figure out a way to prevent cheating. It's easy to fake that you are far away, but hard to fake that you're close, because the speed of light limits ping time.
But if you have something that's a useful network in its own right that keeps track of its own coverage, you can use that to enforce decentralization. The higher the density of nodes in an area, the lower the reward.
Helium network is also battling bad actors in the network and even though the have anti cheat measures in place they are currently voting on a deny list approach to target bad actors as well.
I am very curious about these actual users of Helium you refer to. I know there are a lot of nodes (where if you dump money at people--whether by direct subsidy or via circular incentive engineering--to run them that isn't surprising); but I hadn't heard of actual users. Is there any documentation of such, charts of actual usage over time, or articles covering "we adopted this and it was great"?
I got some airly (https://airly.org/en/products/airly-sensor/) air quality sensors in my neighborhood that are using Helium and you can see other solutions that are using https://www.helium.com/ecosystem. Not sure about the actual usage over time from sensors vs new hotspots joining the network and paying the DC fee, but I'm following https://twitter.com/HNT_DC_Burn and this should increase if the Helium network will be adopted more by sensors/IoT companies. Also the 5G hotspots they are providing in the US will probably add some value as well. You can check the helium twitter feed for companies they partner with or are using the helium network.
