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From my understanding, setting leap seconds 20 years in advance is not a good idea either because large earthquakes (such as the recent one in Japan) can change the Earth's rotation speed enough to require an update.


According to my calculations, the Japan earthquake will not require us to adjust a leap second - at least not within the next ~761 years.

The Japan earthquake shortened the day length by 1.8 microseconds. [1]

1.8 microseconds * 365.25 days * 20 years =~ 0.01 seconds off. Not enough to require an update, even less an urgent update before the 20 years.

1.8 microseconds * 365.25 days * 761 years =~ 0.50 seconds off.

[1] http://www.space.com/11115-japan-earthquake-shortened-earth-...




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