Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

Consider a team of 8 who suck at estimation. Three questions:

1) is anybody aware the team sucks?

2) if yes are people open about it? If no, why not?

3) now what?



1) Probably, 2) possibly, and 3) they should use a method that doesn't rely on estimation.


Please elaborate on (3)


Estimation is only valuable in narrow circumstances. One has to know the expected return with a fair bit of precision to do ROI calculations; generally business revenues projections are highly imprecise, so estimation is often a waste.

Reliable estimation requires a fair bit of information. The technologies have to be well understood. The team has to have worked together sufficiently. The business needs user impact has to be well researched. Estimates can't be more precise than any of those things.

Further, estimation requires stability in team, technology, user needs, business environment, and competitor behavior. To the extent that any of those things are expected to change, estimates become less and less worthwhile.

Lastly, estimation assumes that nobody will learn anything significant over the course of the project. That's surely true for some domains. But in quite a lot of areas, especially the startups we focus on here, the whole point is to learn new things. We see how technologies perform, and then make new choices. We test user reaction, and then change product plans. When that happens, estimates quickly become stale.

So when we're in situations where estimates aren't particularly useful, we have to use different methods. Personally my favorite is using the Lean Startup framework and updated versions the Extreme Programming practices, especially Continuous Deployment.

I have an older talk on some of this here: https://vimeo.com/24843552

And I've written some about it here: http://williampietri.com/writing/2015/the-big-board/

I hope that helps! I may not check this far back in the HN comments again, but feel free to email if you'd like to discuss it further.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: