> 4a) pandemic, action, it works -> government was "right", saved lives, spared the economy -> reelected
This is too optimistic. If it works then people see a tiny death rate and a shutdown forced by the government. The greatest success will look like an overreaction.
Yeah I'm not so sure. In Poland the actions are on the "extreme" side so far, and not many people complain, because sights and news from Italy are constantly brought up as comparison. It's constantly "unless we want to be as screwed as Italy is, we need to do X" and not many people complain about X.
Same in Lithuania. Closing schools, clubs, gyms, canceling all public events and gatherings. So far we have only three confirmed cases (all came back from Italy), but the public is mostly supportive("finally!"). And that is even our health minister is at the bottom of the popularity rankings and the current goverment is not loved at all.
Yes, this is y2k/ozone hole syndrome. Arguably financial crisis, too; that would have been a lot worse without the quite extreme government intervention round the world, but it generally didn’t work out well for the politicians involved.
That said, a lot of governments are taking serious measures and apparently not counting the electoral cost.
Yes, unless your govt is hyper-nationalist and labels the pandemic as a "foreign virus". (Of course dirty foreigners are going to get sick—They're dirty.) We have no fear of pandemics here. We're superior. God protects us. Except for our non-conforming neighbors. They're rat-infested slums, so of course they will get the foreign virus too. God will protect us in our region though because we're clean and white, and we support the hyper-nationalist worldview of Dear Leader.
So it's a complicated problem, with many dynamics at play.
This is too optimistic. If it works then people see a tiny death rate and a shutdown forced by the government. The greatest success will look like an overreaction.