I agree with you, and came ere to say what you have -- however I can name a few reasons why FB users will leave/choose to be non-participants.
(Disclaimer, I do not have, nor shall I ever have a FB account)
Lets assume that in the next few years FB userbase doubles. 20% of the population of the planet has an account.
The amount of data held on those users is immense, and as such, of keen interest to the corporate oligopoly that is government -- There is a very good incentive alone to not have an account on FB.
I am sure there will be a not-insignificant number of people whose ability to get jobs/keep jobs will be inhibited by FB.
I also can imagine FB fueling interest in even more privacy as well - and groups of people with a personal desire to have absolutely ZERO information about them online will be a small but real niche in the populous.
I like the sentiment, but I just want to share pictures from my latest beer pong victory man!
The point is that humans are horrible at risk modeling, particularly teen agers and those in early adulthood.
We as a society seem to be heading towards an expectation of less privacy, which makes Facebook and Google easier to tolerate.
The reason Facebook will fail is when a fundamental shift happens in society that Facebook isn't designed to handle. Facebook really came about because of a mobile population coupled with a need to track our social graphs. Even 30 or 50 years ago facebook couldn't have existed, because everyone you wanted to talk to was only a few minutes drive away.
(Disclaimer, I do not have, nor shall I ever have a FB account)
Lets assume that in the next few years FB userbase doubles. 20% of the population of the planet has an account.
The amount of data held on those users is immense, and as such, of keen interest to the corporate oligopoly that is government -- There is a very good incentive alone to not have an account on FB.
I am sure there will be a not-insignificant number of people whose ability to get jobs/keep jobs will be inhibited by FB.
I also can imagine FB fueling interest in even more privacy as well - and groups of people with a personal desire to have absolutely ZERO information about them online will be a small but real niche in the populous.