The thing is, self driving wars will likely be over before economies of scale for production of lidars will happen.
If non-lidar system doesn't work, then the cost of lidar, even at $10k, is irrelevant.
If you can make non-lidar system work better than humans (i.e. with quality acceptable for regulators) before the cost of lidars drops down significantly, then lidars lose based on economics.
And the cost of lidar won't drop significantly quickly. The next step-change in price would probably require mass production i.e. production of hundreds of thousands of units per year.
Even if lidar robotaxis happen before non-lidar ones, initially they'll be made in tens of thosands of units per year, leaving a couple of years for non-lidar tech to catch up.
If non-lidar system doesn't work, then the cost of lidar, even at $10k, is irrelevant.
If you can make non-lidar system work better than humans (i.e. with quality acceptable for regulators) before the cost of lidars drops down significantly, then lidars lose based on economics.
And the cost of lidar won't drop significantly quickly. The next step-change in price would probably require mass production i.e. production of hundreds of thousands of units per year.
Even if lidar robotaxis happen before non-lidar ones, initially they'll be made in tens of thosands of units per year, leaving a couple of years for non-lidar tech to catch up.