Only if laws of economics in such a complex system were easy to guess.
The more likely scenario in my opinion is American companies more aggressively moving their jobs to India and even other related business to more visa friendly countries like Mexico. My employer has already moved his QA department to India full fledge putting freeze on all QA hiring in USA. Easily 10-15 jobs lost.
Company I'm at (and building up a team at) is currently ramping up our QA/SDET efforts here in the US, as my belief is that we want the Quality Engineers to be as close as possible to the regular engineers (to the extent possible) - for maximum benefit (rapid iterations, faster to fail, higher velocity).
Been interviewing a ton of QA/SDET candidates over the last few weeks, and a challenge is that so few (regardless of immigration/legal status) seem to be open to working with many different languages/tech in any given day - meanwhile switching between areas that historically may be perceived to be within coding, product management, ops.
It's a challenge finding people that fluently can navigate between all those areas. I strongly believe the future of QA is in filling out this void that is - usually - left behind when you have Product/Dev/Ops working together; nothing encompasses all disciplines but good QA folks.
It sounds like you are looking for a unicorn that is already familiar with your stack. Just pick someone who has the desire to work hard and learn new things. The rest comes with time.
On the one hand you warn about trying to guess the outcomes of complex economic systems, while on the other you go ahead and put forward a wild guess yourself.
It's just as likely that although some jobs may be sent back to India, if all wages increase, then it's a net benefit to your average American.
The more likely scenario in my opinion is American companies more aggressively moving their jobs to India and even other related business to more visa friendly countries like Mexico. My employer has already moved his QA department to India full fledge putting freeze on all QA hiring in USA. Easily 10-15 jobs lost.