I don't think it's even close. 9 times out of 10, a man with a cudgel should be destroyed by a large dog (especially one much closer to its wolf ancestry).
Even now, watching my very gentle Golden Retriever have an exuberant running fit, it's clear that dogs are much more agile than humans. All it takes is one miss of that cudgel, and teeth are locked in on the human's delicate skin, cutting in with hundreds of pounds of pressure.
If you can stand a lot of pain long enough. If the dog is determined and has jaw muscles and bones enough to crush your arm you might not be able to focus even enough through the pain to hit the dog even once. My gentle mixed breed refuge (who is roughly the same size as the dog depicted for this story) dog uses his back molars through rapidly bite through bone (and he just splits the few big dog Kongs we tried in half to get the food out) and that is when he is not angry or hungry; when angered I think the splintering of your arm would be enough to make you drop your stick in the other arm's hand.
Even now, watching my very gentle Golden Retriever have an exuberant running fit, it's clear that dogs are much more agile than humans. All it takes is one miss of that cudgel, and teeth are locked in on the human's delicate skin, cutting in with hundreds of pounds of pressure.