All rallies do come to an end. The fact that we all don't know exactly what will cause this one to end is exactly part of the problem and 100% doesn't mean it won't happen. Usually some external shock spooks the market and a massive sell off happens.
So what could happen, any number of things. An obvious near term issue might be inflation increases dramatically in the US (on account of the oil shock), causing interest rates to increase - maybe dramatically - , which causes the stock market to retract. Also, the housing market is pretty much toast at the moment and an increase in interest rates might finish it off too causing a contraction there. So many ways things can break.
But honestly, I'll tell you after it happens and it will happen. Having lived through a few of these now when everyone tells you it's a sure thing and prices go up for ever you get an inkling you are near the pop.
> All rallies do come to an end. The fact that we all don't know exactly what will cause this one to end is exactly part of the problem and 100% doesn't mean it won't happen. Usually some external shock spooks the market and a massive sell off happens.
Yes sure, but that statement contains zero information -- why do you believe it will end in a time short enough for the "market bubble" comments to even make sense?
External shocks -- sure of course. Inflation problems in US -- absolutely, it's a ticking time bomb with a debt crisis looming. Housing market I don't really know anything about but I'll take your word for it.
But all of this has been true for awhile, and could have been stated with equal veracity over the course of the last 5 years at least. Your beliefs shape your actions; so why does this belief shape actions any differently than it has earlier?
> ut honestly, I'll tell you after it happens and it will happen. Having lived through a few of these now when everyone tells you it's a sure thing and prices go up for ever you get an inkling you are near the pop.
Again totally true, I have also lived through them and expect more. But "these companies are IPO'ing because they know the market will pop" is kind of the thing that I was trying to address. For all the signals of market danger, there are plenty of optimistic signals all over the data. Growth is pretty robust across all sectors today.
I think the original comment was before the market sneezes. So we all know it will sneeze and the companies want to get in on this business cycle. The longer they leave it the more likely they will miss it.
It's been established many times in this thread that the US is not just refusing to trade but 1) Forcing trading partners to also not trade 2) Physically boarding and seizing ships that are attempting to go to the island with cargos of oil. Yet you just keep repeating the stuff about it being just about not trading with the US.
On the contrary, this statement about force and boarding has been repeated and also countered numerous times. For one, I've yet to see the "forced" claim elaborated. Leveraging retaliatory tariffs is not an act of force--that is the only "force" action I've seen mentioned so far. Furthermore, the boarding and seizing has been credibly described as a police action to enforce false flag laws, i.e. maritime impersonation.
also physically preventing ships from delivering fuel to the Island. It's all even more cynical and hypocritical when compared to the strait of Hormuz debacle, how can the US pretend that Iran must allow oil tankers unobstructed passage (international laws, ships at sea bla bla bla) when the US is deliberately preventing oil ships to travel to Cuba.
so, interested how many people are running higher end AI models locally? Figure if I'm spending $800/month on tokens I can build a pretty beefy local machine for the cost of a few months spend - what is people's experience with say a $5k server custom built (and only for) running an AI model.
You will likely have to compromise on memory bandwidth or capacity under a $10k price. The Radeon R9700 has 32 GB of VRAM and is pretty cheap (~$1500 right now), which is what I primarily use. My home desktop has 128 GB RAM and my laptop has 96 GB RAM, but bandwidth limits make most models slow on those CPUs. Models with multi-token prediction are somewhat usable on them: Nemotron 3 Super runs reasonably well on my desktop but does poorly on agentic coding that I've given it; my laptop can run Qwen3.6-27B reasonably well with a version of llama.cpp that is patched for MTP support; but usually I run Qwen3.6-27B on my R9700. vLLM might support two or three R9700s on some OS, but I've not been able to get it to run at all with Ubuntu 26.04: system ROCm version is apparently different than what's in the container images, and system OpenMPI v5.0 finally removed C++ bindings that were deprecated in 2005 but are linked from some Python wheel that vLLM (probably indirectly) imports.
If you are spending $800/month on tokens you are likely to notice degradation for local models compared to near-frontier models. The models I can run locally are consistently worse than Claude Sonnet 4.6 (again for the work I give them), although Qwen3.6 does feel almost like magic for its size because it can do a lot. The really big open-weight models should be better, but they want 200+GB RAM, which will need a correspondingly expensive CPU.
I'm running a server in the 5K-league. And the results are very good. I get about 150 Tokens/s from Qwen3 for coding. And about 50 Tokens/s from the newer non-MoE Qwens.
I wouldn't bother with less than 32GB of VRAM. With 16GB you can already run something usable, but 32GB gives you much more power. 9B and 14B are only interesting if you want to tune models yourself. The sweet spot now seem to be around 27B-35B.
Check in with /r/localllama. There's 100gb vram set ups from complete ewaste to single 8gb GPU inference machines.depends on what you want and can afford
I can't reply to the other comment because it's been flagged, but I just wanted to point out that I do not think employees should be treated like cattle. I was being sarcastic. I was using the language of tech bros to satirize the situation.
I'm actually shocked that people could take my comment at face value and not realize it was obviously sarcastic. That is eye opening.
Ryanair have been regulated into compliance very effectively by the European authorities- everyone knows they are scumbags and make sure they don’t get away with nonsense.
Literally how regulators should work. They look at the outrageous things they try to do and make laws to prevent them. It’s worked very well and also hasn’t ended Ryanair (which is the usual anti regulation argument , that we can’t have cheap things with regulations).
I personally never fly Ryanair because I’ve had to sue them (and won) in the past, they really do suck.
When's the last time you tried to claw back your EU mandated clawback for things like delayed flights from one of these airlines without fighting tooth and nail and threatening legal action? Perhaps this has improved in recent years, but when I was flying EU regularly several years ago getting that refund has always been an uphill battle.
Hah, I tried when BA had to cancel my flight due to a computer system outage. Coincidentally, some “activists” handcuffed themselves to a fence on the runway at the exact same time, which was an act of terror or whatever and thus not covered, so I did not receive my money back.
This will be very interesting to observe. Social media is a cesspool and getting worse by the minute. Even hacker news is being inundated with bots. On controversial topics tons of new accounts appear arguing divisively both sides of the argument.
It’s clear that nefarious regimes have won on social media.
It would be interesting to understand the ratio of real human posts to manipulation on twitter for example - I’d imagine it has long ago tipped to majority bot.
Tackling this problem is existential for western democracies. This seems like a reasonable idea. There might be other options (like validated but anonymous) but we have to try something.
It’s worth noting too that many strong western democracies have laws around hate speech and libel that are being broken by anonymous people online - and the citizens of those countries are perfectly happy with those laws.
One country (Greece) with an ineffective law will have negligible impact on the entire internet. Are there popular Greek-only social medias?
More generally, many people spew toxicity under the real name. And there’s already nothing stopping a social media from only allowing verified users.
Hate speech and libel laws have already been misused against people who didn’t actually “hate” or lie. Even if Western democracies are falling, this could make them fall faster, so IMO we should try better ideas first.
How do we know that? Honest question. Anonymity is just not a feature of normal political or civil life in most countries. In fact it can often be contrary to civility. I don't see why removing Anonymity and preventing foreign meddling in ones country is a bad thing.
Who's "we?" There is no shared or special knowledge, but any superficial application of critical thinking reaches obvious conclusions quickly. I can only inform from my perspective but cannot think for you.
There are costs to open societies... like people being jerks.
Closed societies deny anonymity and are able to punish dissent and opposition easily because they know what everyone is doing at almost all times. Speech ceases to be free which repression becomes rampant.
Pick 1. There is no perfect but don't let perfection be the enemy of the good.
This is a pretty incoherent comment. You realize you mentioned “we” first so calling me out for using inclusive language doesn’t really make any sense. As for the rest of it, it’s all super basic half baked ideas that even to discuss we would have to spend 10x the amount of characters defining what nonsense you are talking about.
In retrospect I should not have made this comment, I was frustrated and replied rudely.
I think that there are many points to address in your comment, not least the definition of "open" and "closed" societies. But anonymous and non-anonymous do not correspond with open and closed. We aren't talking about "people being jerks" we are talking about nation-state adversaries controlling democracies by sock puppeting and astroturfing and other nefarious means of control. These were not attack vectors before we had social media (or at least were much less potent - a letter to the editor from a. non.) but they have become serious ways to influence populations and control narratives. This is bad. This is an existential issue for modern western democracies exactly because they are open liberal societies. If we lived in autocracies it wouldn't matter because we wouldn't have any influence.
It's incredible how much I can agree with you yet still be revolted beyond measure that I'd have to have my every word online tracked by governments. They are fundamentally untrustable agents, with incredible state powers & a monopoly on force that they regularly abuse. Them demanding access to knowing every word that every person writes is not ok.
But the us gov already knows everything you type online - Snowden told us that years ago - they have a direct pipe from all the major internet companies.
So this is just attempting to regain control of the internet for democracies that are not the US. It’s not going to fix Russia or the US but maybe it will fix Greece at negligible cost.
If this problem can actually be solved (requirement for both anonymity and ID in different spaces online without AI infiltration), it appears to be a long road to get there...
>It would be interesting to understand the ratio of real human posts to manipulation on twitter for example - I’d imagine it has long ago tipped to majority bot.
The vast majority of bots are government funded. Banning anonymity will just mean people only see bots funded by their own government and its allies, making it even more one-sided (because their own government will almost certainly still have the ability to make bots, like in Chinese internet).
So what could happen, any number of things. An obvious near term issue might be inflation increases dramatically in the US (on account of the oil shock), causing interest rates to increase - maybe dramatically - , which causes the stock market to retract. Also, the housing market is pretty much toast at the moment and an increase in interest rates might finish it off too causing a contraction there. So many ways things can break.
But honestly, I'll tell you after it happens and it will happen. Having lived through a few of these now when everyone tells you it's a sure thing and prices go up for ever you get an inkling you are near the pop.
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