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And battery prices and buildout are looking really promising.

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-...


And that's even coming from the IEA who have a pessimistic track record around predictions for renewable technology https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E12AQE79Zr-GUVJcQ/art...

> It says nothing leaves your computer

Where does it say that?

It sends to OpenRouter if you chose to use OpenRouter. Can use Ollama. Idk how to get more local than that? Any tool will be non-local, when you do something explicitly non-local.


So: Yes, hopelessly naive.

Overly, compared to what? Most people I know would be hard pressed to give either accurate information or even honest opinions when specifically asked. People want to be liked and people want to like people for reasons that have little to do with accuracy or honesty.

It's an interesting point but I too find it questionable. Humans operate differently than machines. We don't design CPU benchmarks around how humans would approach a given computation. It's not entirely obvious why we would do it here (but it might still be a good idea, I am curious).

I am worried for people using write ups like this as a huge, much appreciated dose of copium.

Try it out and don't stop trying. If something improves at this rate, even if you think it's not there right now, don't assume it is going to stop. Be honest about the things we were always obviously bad at, that the ai has been getting quickly better at, and assume that it will continue getting better. If this were true, what would that mean for you?


Ah, metaphors. Abstract concepts are not moving objects. You don't actually need to "turn it around" or "sail past it". You can break the laws of physics (because they don't apply). You can teleport around.

Speed actually just wins, because we are usually constrained by time.


Yes, AI can emit BS at a faster rate than ever. We can also produce more blog posts than ever.

Working or useful software? AI hasn't produced any at all since 2023.


Wow, an account, just for that? I feel honored and slightly suspicious.

Altman didn't want to post from his own account

Speed actually just wins, because we are usually constrained by time.

Sorry, but I don’t understand what you mean here. What do we win by being faster at producing the wrong things?


You learn more quickly that you are producing the wrong thing.

Do you ? It takes a some introspection. People can be in denial despite the feedback from reality.

This implies that

1) a lot of shallow, orthogonal directions is better than 1 deep, careful approach

2) There's no social aspect to churning out a bunch of slop that will affect the perception of potential "right things" later. My domain can be particularly grudgeful in this regard.


1) If there is uncertainty, that seems to be correct, yes. (If there is no uncertainty, then the question and the essay become moot: You already know what to do. Things take as long as they must. Worst case, you are wrong.)

2) I read that part twice and could not figure out what it is you are trying to say.


Honest question: What is the hard part? If you took all of that stuff and did it as quickly as you could somewhere else, what's would be the biggest issue? People + resistance to change of any kind?

The outcome seems so obviously good. I have never heard of anyone complaining about a city becoming less car centric, but maybe somehow it's an under-represented story?


Well I sold off my car after realizing I enjoyed the bike ride to work. Then a year later an older family member had a health crisis requiring hospital visits at all possible times of the day and night for many months. Couldnt always rely on cabs and that was the only time I regretted selling the car. But we got through it with friends and fam sharing transport duties. Quite a crazy period so I could imagine it becoming real complicated for certain issues.

Effectively NIMBYism, but for cars. The political backlash would stop all progress. People don’t like change, even for the better.

There are places where car is simply the mean of transport - to the point where using the car is preferred to literally a five minutes walk.

In contexts like this, using a car is perceived as a right - restricting usage doesn't make people think "I'll take the chance to use the bike", rather "How the f*ck do I get there now?".


The trouble is that the backlash occurs even in places that are pedestrian and transit dominated.

You have not heard people complaining about cities impeding traffic, likely, because of the bubble you live in. That is the thing that makes regular people to run for the city offices. A whole lot of recent "urbanization" is not going to survive for long because of this IMHO.

Is the novel idea behind this recurring critique that a CEO must be the chief scientist or that we uniquely hate Sam Altman over all other CEOs?

There is a plausible scenario in which software engineering requires a very finite amount of intelligence, in which sota models will be used mainly for other things and where for coding the harness will become increasingly more important than the model.

i've kinda had this thought before but never could express it ("you only need up to a certain level of smartness to express most coding concepts correctly")

but it never occurred to me that, if true, of course the harness becomes increasingly more important. which feels absolutely correct of course.

not sure if the hypothesis is even true though.


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