Not OP and not a parent. HOWEVER, I find it logical that if a brief rest break (maybe a snack and a nice sit down somewhere?) doesn't get things back on track it's probably time to go anyway.
(1) Tesla is aiming for 1 million cars in 2020. At an average price of $45,000/car ($42k for Model 3/Y but higher for Model S/X) that would be $45 billion a year in revenue. And they would still likely be growing fast at that point, with expansion in Europe and Asia.
(2) Current gross margin is 25%, but is trending up as they scale Model X. Model S/X gross margin is likely going to be 30% within a year. Tesla is targeting a gross margin of 25% on Model 3. This gross margin is excluding ZEV credits.
Tesla will soon use up the federal tax incentive ($7500 going to buyer) as they pass their 200,000th car sold in the U.S. But they still will have state and ZEV incentives that aren't depending on the federal government. There is risk with the new administration possibly delaying Tesla's autonomous driving plans.
(4) For cash flow analysis, look at Tesla's most recent Q3 financials. It was a breakthrough quarter, as they are selling 25k cars/quarter (100k cars/year run rate). Financials show that S/X gross profit now covers all operating expenses. And when you deduct depreciation expenses and stock-based compensation, Tesla is actually cash flow positive by a large amount (over $400M just last quarter). They used some of that cash for capex, but still have over $100M left over. Tesla's finances have turned a corner, and they look very positive. For Solarcity, they had good Q3 earnings as well. Looks like Solarcity will not impact cash flow for Tesla in Q4 as Solarcity look to be cash flow positive in Q4. Next year, Solarcity's cash flow is projected to be neutral.
Absurdly optimistic. Gross margin is ~20% excluding ZEV on their very high end models, the average price per car will be closer to 60k in 2020, probably around 55k (35k base will probably go to 60-70k with add ons), and Tesla will (maybe) be selling 300-500k cars annually in 2020.
3) accurate
4) Model 3 will be very capital intensive, especially in light of unforeseen problems such as recalls, competition (unlikely in the near term), and consumers opting to get the base model instead of the decked out one. I don't pay attention to solarcity, but generally have mixed vibes about the company. SpaceX, on the other hand, has very positive prospects IMO.
"Gross margin is ~20% excluding ZEV"... where are you getting your data? Have you checked their latest Q3 earnings report?
Here's a quote from their Q3 shareholder letter: "Q3 GAAP Total automotive gross margin was 29.4%, while non-GAAP Automotive gross margin was 25.0% excluding SBC and $139 million of ZEV credit revenue."
There are convenants in this deal whereby SolarCity becomes a subsidiary, rather than a true merger. Tesla won't assume its debt, which is junk. Why do you think that is? SolarCity is in bad shape. You are insanely optimistic.
Regarding the Fortune article, I'm not sure if that's an accounting "trick" as it's more of a risk factor. Tesla gave a resale value guarantee on loans starting over 3 years ago which had a clause that the buyer could sell back their cars to Tesla at end of 3 years for a certain guaranteed price. A very small % of people have redeemed this guarantee, showing that Tesla vehicles are holding their resale value very well. This shows there's low risk for a massive financial loss in their resale guarantees to leasing partners. Sure, there's always risk but the risk of Tesla vehicles suddenly losing a ton of value (much more than expected) seems quite slim.
Regarding Solarcity, yes I've seen reports saying they become subsidiary. But Elon has mentioned a few times that Tesla will assume all of Solarcity's debt.
Ah, that makes sense. Still, I sort of expect raw sensor data to be very high volume, so Tesla engineers can probably deploy "queries" to the fleet for which data to upload, but not get the whole thing.
I have a tentative plan of the next few places I want to go next. That changes (just about every week) based on people I meet, the conversations I have, what other people's stories get me excited, and the timezone I want to be in.
The more I make solid friends with other long-term travelers, however, the more I prioritize the locations where I know those friends will be.
By "location-independent" I mean a person doesn't have to be in a certain location to run their business. Meaning, they can run their business from anywhere.
Just like Ericsson and Nokia? They didn't stand a chance, as history has proven. Especially given most of these car companies don't have a huge pile of cash on the sidelines.
Social-signalling/being a 'high-end' phone is what the iPhone's success rode on, and there were no high-end smartphones (well, there was Virtu but they were more botique than mass-produced high-end).
There already exist a smorgasbord of luxury cars that are social signallers; Apple will have to do something much more 'revolutionary' than they did with the iPhone. There weren't any smartphone equivalents of Mercedes-Benz, Porsche[1] or Maserati.
But Apple is still perceived as a premium brand by many. I am unsure of how many of those belong to the class of people who will buy a premium car but am willing to bet there are just enough to be dangerous.
Apple is also more well-known than Tesla currently. I still think it won't be easy for Apple but I've learned to appreciate the power of market perception.
